The rest of the season played out 10,000 times from our ratings: who makes the 12-team College Football Playoff, who wins each conference, and who wins it all.
Chance to Make the Playoff
Makes the playoffLighter band = earns a first-round bye
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Résumé: Strength of Record vs. Power Rating
Right = a stronger résumé (CFBU Strength of Record: wins above what a typical top-25 team would have against the same schedule). Up = a better team (Power Rating: points better than an average FBS team). Logos = the 25 teams with the best playoff odds.
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Chance to Win the National Championship
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Chance to Win the Conference
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How it works: every remaining game is played out from our team ratings (with each team's true strength allowed to differ from its rating, more so early in the season), conference championship games are set from each simulated standings, a stand-in for the selection committee ranks the teams from their records, strength of record and ratings, and the 2026 bracket rules pick and seed the field (Power 4 champions, the top Group of Six team and Notre Dame if top 12 get in; top 4 seeds get byes). Checked against every season since 2014.
